544 

ACUS11 KWNS 292038

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 292037 

TXZ000-NMZ000-292230-



Mesoscale Discussion 1384

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0337 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...portions of western texas and far southeastern New

Mexico



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 292037Z - 292230Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible across portions of western

Texas and far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. A

watch is not anticipated.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along the terrain of west

Texas, and cumulus is deepening along a diffuse dryline across

portions of far southeastern new Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.

These storms are well south of the main mid-level jet axis, and the

18Z MAF RAOB showed relatively modest flow throughout the column. A

relatively dry boundary layer with steep lapse rates is also

apparent in short-term RAP forecast profiles, and this may provide a

risk for severe gusts across portions of west Texas and far

southeastern New Mexico. With the relatively weak deep-layer shear,

some clustering of storms may occur, and this would increase the

risk of severe gusts. However, this activity is still expected to

remain sparse in coverage, and therefore, a watch is not anticipated

at this time.



..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...



LAT...LON   32260378 34050286 35820194 36150152 36150095 36010065

            35430052 34310079 31660187 30110217 29790260 29460326

            29600403 30080445 32260378 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH