802 

ACUS11 KWNS 292025

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 292024 

MIZ000-WIZ000-292230-



Mesoscale Discussion 1383

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0324 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...the Western U.P. of Michigan



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 292024Z - 292230Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...The potential for at least isolated occurrences of severe

wind gusts is expected to increase in the 2100-2130Z (4:00-4:30 PM

CDT) time frame. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.



DISCUSSION...As of 2020Z, a long-lived bowing MCS was progressing

through far western Lake Superior at around 45 kt. Extrapolation of

the current motion takes it into the western U.P. of MI and adjacent

near-shore waters between 2100-2130Z. The MCS is located to the

north of a warm front lifting north through northern WI, suggesting

that it might be slightly elevated atop a shallow near-ground

inversion. Nonetheless, the presence of a strong rear-inflow jet

will support the potential for at least isolated severe wind gusts

late this afternoon into early evening.



..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...



LAT...LON   46869061 47328936 47488796 46608794 46228838 46318927

            46469014 46609068 46869061 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN