803 

ACUS11 KWNS 291914

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 291914 

MNZ000-WIZ000-292115-



Mesoscale Discussion 1382

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0214 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota...including the Arrowhead



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...



Valid 291914Z - 292115Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414

continues.



SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and large hail is expected

to continue across remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm

Watch #414. The greatest potential for a tornado or two exists with

a supercell on the southern end of the bowing MCS in the vicinity of

the warm front.



DISCUSSION...As of 19Z, KDLH radar data indicated a well-defined bow

echo across St. Louis County with a trailing supercell over Aitkin

County. Movement of the bow echo was to the northeast at 50 kt.

Sporadic wind damage reports and marginally severe wind gusts have

occurred over the past hour, despite earlier volumetric radar data

sampling an 80+ kt rear-inflow jet (RIJ). Relatively cool and stable

near-ground conditions are likely inhibiting the majority of

higher-momentum flow in the RIJ from reaching the surface, except

where locally intense downbursts are able to penetrate the stable

layer. Expect that trend to continue with the bow echo as the

low-level stability will likely be maintained by onshore flow from

off Lake Superior.



Meanwhile, the supercell over Aitkin County recently produced hail

up to 1.5 inches, and its likely large hail potential will continue

with that storm as it continues east along the immediate cool side

of the warm front. That threat is expected to spread east into far

northwest WI, where the watch has been locally extended. In addition

to the hail threat, the potential exists for a tornado or two owing

to the proximity of the warm front where low-level shear is

maximized. That threat is conditional on the supercell being firmly

rooted with the boundary layer.



..Mead.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DLH...



LAT...LON   46269199 46229268 46279356 46999399 47669391 48209324

            48259169 48078990 47758969 46799063 46369116 46269199 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN