466 

ACUS11 KWNS 291742

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 291741 

NDZ000-291945-



Mesoscale Discussion 1380

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...Central North Dakota



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 291741Z - 291945Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all

hazards is expected to increase by 19-20Z. A watch is likely.



DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite and radar data

indicate a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm development

across western ND into northwest SD. That activity is located to the

west of a n-s-oriented stationary front/inverted trough located over

central ND and within a zone of increased forcing for ascent

preceding a short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak

pivoting through eastern WY. To the east of the front, dewpoints in

the 70s and a gradually warming boundary layer are contributing to a

moderately unstable and increasingly uncapped air mass with MLCAPE

of 1000-2000+ J/kg, per latest objective analysis.



The current expectation is for surface-based storm development to

occur in the vicinity of the front/trough by 19-20Z within a

kinematic environment featuring low-level easterly winds veering to

southerly in the mid/upper levels with 50-60 kt of effective bulk

shear. As such, the potential will exist for initial supercell storm

modes with an associated risk for large to very large hail and

perhaps a few tornadoes. There is some signal in recent CAM guidance

that initial storms could evolve into bowing segments, which would

be supportive of an increased damaging wind threat.



..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...



LAT...LON   46630121 47940135 48710100 48939969 48699864 47839809

            47199851 46629898 46189942 46090048 46630121 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN