355 

ACUS11 KWNS 291543

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 291543 

MIZ000-291745-



Mesoscale Discussion 1378

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1043 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...Northern Lower Michigan



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 291543Z - 291745Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of large hail are possible with the

ongoing storms this morning. The limited areal coverage of the

threat is expected to preclude a watch issuance.



DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have persisted this morning

across northern Lake Michigan into northern lower MI, with some of

the storms exhibiting episodic supercellular characteristics. That

convective activity is likely elevated on the northeast periphery of

stronger mid-level capping and largely driven by low/mid-level warm

advection per KAPX VWP. Model-derived forecast soundings and the

observed wind profile data suggest the environment will remain

supportive of periodic storm organization through the remainder of

the morning with an attendant risk for large hail.



..Mead/Guyer.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...APX...



LAT...LON   45598628 45958581 45698432 44878335 44338380 44418467

            44828548 45188620 45598628 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN