709 

ACUS11 KWNS 290631

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 290630 

WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-290900-



Mesoscale Discussion 1373

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0130 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...northeast Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and

western Upper Michigan



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 290630Z - 290900Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage tonight, and isolated

instances of marginal hail cannot be ruled out.



DISCUSSION...A warm front extends across central MN and WI, with 70s

F dewpoints to the south. Meanwhile, VWPs show 925-850 mb winds out

of the south to southwest near 30 kt. 



Although temperatures aloft are warming ahead of the upper trough,

the high precipitable water air mass is still yielding MUCAPE of

3000-4000 J/kg near and south of the warm front. The 04Z GRB

sounding is on the dry side of the instability gradient, just east

of the elevated high theta-e air mass, but indicates veering winds

with height and overall high precipitable water content. 



Persistent southwest winds just off the surface should continue

bring strong elevated instability across the region tonight, and,

aid lift. Some of the stronger storm cores may be capable of

marginally severe hail, as effective deep-layer shear averages near

50 kt and aids cellular storm mode.



..Jewell/Smith.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...



LAT...LON   46579342 46769280 46839211 46829076 46158880 45618810

            44918802 44618844 45208988 45489125 45589245 45629372

            45919401 46269394 46579342 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN