943 

ACUS11 KWNS 281646

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 281646 

FLZ000-281845-



Mesoscale Discussion 0123

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1046 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Areas affected...portions of the central/southern Florida Peninsula



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 281646Z - 281845Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase over the next couple

of hours over eastern portions of the central/southern Florida

Peninsula. Some of these storms could become strong to severe this

afternoon, posing a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and

isolated large hail.



DISCUSSION...Convection is developing along a surface

boundary/residual outflow oriented from Charlotte to St. Lucie

counties. This activity is developing in a moist environment with

dewpoints in the 69-73 F range. Temperatures have already warmed

into the upper 70s/low 80s F at midday. With additional heating and

increasing large-scale ascent overspreading the region this

afternoon, convection will intensify and increase in coverage over

the next couple of hours, both along the surface outflow and near

the east coast sea breeze. 



MLCAPE values have already increased to around 1500-2000 J/kg and

effective shear will support some updraft organization despite weak

low-level flow. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to remain poor,

but given sufficient instability and shear, some stronger storms

could produce hail to around 1.5 inches. Steepened low-level lapse

rates and storm interactions also could support locally strong wind

gusts. The best area for severe storms is somewhat limited

spatially, near St. Lucie to Broward Counties, and the need for a

watch is uncertain, though trends will be monitored over the next

couple of hours.



..Leitman/Smith.. 02/28/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...



LAT...LON   27238166 27728144 27808110 27838032 27467984 26567967

            25917973 25588008 25618042 25828067 27238166 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN