608 

ACUS03 KWNS 290735

SWODY3

SPC AC 290734



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE

NORTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the

central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on

Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.



...Synopsis...

The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly

change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will

maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into

the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the

Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced

to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will

persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will

develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the

Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge.



...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...

A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward

progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern

Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the

morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong

low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will

weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly

unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves,

there is potential for another round of convection to develop along

the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a

subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS

development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large

hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of

greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe

probabilities may be needed as confidence increases.



...Northeast...

Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the

very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging

downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the

uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have

been added.



..Wendt.. 06/29/2026



$$