375 

ACUS03 KWNS 310829

SWODY3

SPC AC 310828



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early

morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as

well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast.



...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...

At least isolated thunderstorm potential should return across a

portion of the interior Deep South on Friday night. Meager elevated

buoyancy should develop as low-level moistening occurs ahead of a

leading shortwave impulse tracking across the Mid-South to TN

Valley. This impulse may dampen downstream of a shortwave trough

progressing from the Four Corners to north TX. The bulk of MUCAPE

should largely remain at around 500 J/kg or less, owing to modest

mid-level lapse rates.



Farther south towards the central Gulf Coast from southeast LA to

the FL Panhandle, richer low-level moisture should spread somewhat

inland ahead of the more prominent shortwave trough. Most

convective-parameterized models suggest an increase in convective

development may occur at the end of the period within the low-level

theta-e gradient. Despite a generally zonal deep-layer wind profile,

adequate low-level hodograph curvature and robust speed shear

renders a conditional supercell concern. But poor mid-level lapse

rates renders concern for the degree of convective development prior

to 12Z, with the 00Z RRFS having minimal deep convective signal.

With minimal ML probabilities across this area as well, will defer

to later outlook cycles for a level 1-MRGL risk highlight. 



...Coastal northern CA and southwest OR...

A large-scale upper trough will approach the Pacific Coast, with an

intense mid-level jetlet likely impinging on the northern CA coast

on Friday night. Fast deep-layer flow is anticipated within the

low-level warm conveyor, but should remain entirely meridional until

near the end of the period. Instability within the warm conveyor

appears minimal, suggesting that thunderstorm potential will remain

negligible amid strong gradient flow. Steepening mid-level lapse

rates may brush the northern CA to southwest OR coast in the early

morning Saturday. This should support scant buoyancy and potential

for very isolated thunderstorms.



..Grams.. 12/31/2025



$$