494 

ACUS03 KWNS 300734

SWODY3

SPC AC 300733



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts

of southern California and Arizona.



...Southern CA to AZ...

While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude

shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its

spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a

broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough

in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree

of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA

between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with

low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition,

with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level

cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm

potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for

low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along

with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate

negligible severe potential.



Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular

Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that

yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through

Thursday evening.



..Grams.. 12/30/2025



$$