155 

ACUS02 KWNS 310655

SWODY2

SPC AC 310653



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1253 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL

SOUTHERN CA...



...SUMMARY...

Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a

portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.



...CA and the Southwest...

Guidance continues a decidedly northward trend to the evolution of

the compact shortwave trough, currently west of southern CA. Latest

indications are for this wave to reach the San Joaquin Valley around

midday Thursday, before slightly dampening over the southern Great

Basin. Thunderstorm potential appears greatest on Thursday morning

with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across southern

CA. Despite the early time of day, activity along the coast should

be surface-based along the periphery of low 60s dew points.

Buoyancy/instability will remain meager, given the expected

northerly track of the wave and attendant mesoscale cold core

displaced from the richer moisture plume. But guidance is consistent

with the depiction of 40-50 kt 700-mb flow across the Transverse

Ranges through midday. With some low-level hodograph curvature and

several CAMs suggestive of at least one rotating cell in the LA

Basin vicinity, have opted to include a small level 1-MRGL risk for

wind and tornado.



Confidence remains low in the degree of thunderstorm potential

farther north and east. Lower-level moisture east of CA should be

greater across AZ, but this may remain displaced too far south of 

the latest consensus for the mid-level cold core. It is plausible

that much of the convection from the Central Valley to AZ will

remain low-topped, with thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent

or less.



..Grams.. 12/31/2025



$$