054 

ACUS01 KWNS 292008

SWODY1

SPC AC 292007



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0307 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Valid 292000Z - 301200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF

EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper

Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large

hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.



...20Z Update...

The most noteworthy change with this update was the addition of

10-percent tornado probabilities (with CIG1) over parts of eastern

ND into northwestern MN. Here, the latest surface observations and

visible satellite imagery indicate a warm front moving slowly

northward. In the wake of an earlier MCS, diurnal heating of a moist

air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) and steep midlevel lapse rates should

yield sufficient boundary-layer recovery for the development of

surface-based storms ahead of a surface low tracking northward

across the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Related strong

buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and increasingly large

clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the

boundary will support a locally favorable corridor for a few

supercell tornadoes (some of which could be strong).



..Weinman.. 06/29/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/



...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...

Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across

north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the

north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be

prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may

increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm

front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion

1379.



Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable

over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including

recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across

Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward

into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will

support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are

forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated

with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample

deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor

supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and

severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity,

especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress

into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.



...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...

Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.

Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally

weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will

be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.



...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida...

Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be

possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with

some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly

stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.



$$