237 

ACUS01 KWNS 010042

SWODY1

SPC AC 010041



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0641 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Valid 010100Z - 011200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.



...01z Update...



Weak surface front is gradually advancing south across the southern

FL Peninsula early this evening. Scattered convection continues near

the south FL Atlantic coast, as deep westerly flow has shunted

better low-level convergence into this portion of the peninsula. 00z

sounding from MFL exhibited substantial instability, but latest

radar/lightning trends suggest updrafts have weakened considerably.

Primary threat for thunderstorms appears to have shifted offshore,

especially as boundary layer continues to cool over the next few

hours.



00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with a deep

boundary layer and only modest PW. Scattered weak convection is

mostly concentrated over the Ozark region, and this activity only

has isolated lightning noted with it. Given the weak 850mb flow it

appears the risk for thunderstorms will continue to wane this

evening.



Scattered thunderstorms have developed ahead of a short-wave trough

approaching northern CA. This feature will deamplify as it ejects

into the northern Great Basin later this evening. Lightning may

accompany the stronger updrafts given the large-scale support.



..Darrow.. 03/01/2026



$$