648 

ACUS01 KWNS 310515

SWODY1

SPC AC 310513



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1113 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025



Valid 311200Z - 011200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern

California very late in the period.



...Southern CA...



Seasonally strong southern-stream upper trough is forecast to

approach the southern CA coast late in the period. Latest model

guidance suggests a strong 500mb speed max will translate through

the base of the trough by 01/12z, and the left-exit region of this

speed max will encourage convection along/ahead of a weak front as

it surges inland, primarily after 09z. Forecast soundings along the

coast suggest thunderstorms should be elevated in nature, with

initial convection likely rooted above 850mb. However, as the front

approaches, the level of parcel lift should lower, but likely remain

slightly elevated. Even so, low-level shear/forcing is not expected

to be particularly strong, and buoyancy appears inadequate for any

meaningful risk of severe.



..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/31/2025



$$