220 

ACUS48 KWNS 290901

SWOD48

SPC AC 290859



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Valid 021200Z - 071200Z



...DISCUSSION...

The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist

through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of

the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of

convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but

shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote

development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled

surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show

potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday

will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting

mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is

not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day

prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving

into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur.

Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as

confidence continues to increase.



Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here,

stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of

the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the

Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast

and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next

week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.



..Wendt.. 06/29/2026