423 

AGUS74 KWCO 282002

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

200 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026



...Potential of flash and small stream flooding mid to late next week  

across the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley...



.Ozarks into the Ohio Valley...

Confidence continues to increase for the potential of flash, urban, small  

stream flooding by the middle of next week. Forecast rainfall totals over  

the next 7 days are  2 - 3" with locally higher amounts possible.  

Antecedent conditions are generally on the drier side, particularly across  

the Ozarks which will help mitigate some of the initial responses however,  

given that the region is entering a more active rainfall pattern, we will  

likely see the area becoming more primed for stream and river responses.  

Both the NBM- and GFS-forced NWM are signaling widespread exceedance of the  

High Water Threshold and isolated stream reaches in the 50 - 20% AEP range,  

suggesting some potential for significant flows on streams and rivers.  

Currently, much of the river ensemble guidance is focused north of the Ohio  

River in IL, IN, and OH, where dry antecedent conditions will be able to  

mitigate the flood response, at least initially, but should higher QPF  

totals creep southward into KY/TN, the potential for impacts may be higher  

given more saturated soils and generally higher streamflows. Given the  

extended nature of the forecast, the exact placement and magnitude of  

flooding impacts remains uncertain, but confidence in the occurrence of  

flash, urban, small stream, and river flooding impacts within the region is  

increasing.



.Northeast...

Snowmelt is likely to accelerate late next week due to warmer temperatures.  

Snow water equivalent (SWE) amounts of 2 - 4" with locally higher amounts  

are already in place across eastern NY and New England (SNODAS). The NWM  

tends to be undermodeling the total SWE across the region suggesting that  

NWM signals could be underdone however, river ensembles suggest the  

potential for river responses late next week and into the weekend. Given  

these factors, the region will certainly need to be monitored in the coming  

days.



//Smith



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www.weather.gov/owp/operations









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