686 

AGUS74 KWCO 281248

HMDNWC



National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL

NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL

700 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026



.Update...



The Limited selection across the Ozarks and Ohio Valley was expanded  

significantly to the east and southwest to account for a larger QPF  

footprint. Currently much of the ensemble river guidance is focused north  

of the Ohio River in IL, IN, and OH, where dry antecedent conditions will  

be able to mitigate the flood response, at least initially, but should  

higher QPF totals creep southward into KY/TN, the potential for impacts may  

be higher given more saturated soils and generally higher streamflows. Both  

the NBM and GFS-forced NWM are signaling widespread exceedance of the  

Highwater Threshold and isolated stream reaches in the 50 - 20% AEP range,  

suggesting some potential for significant flows on streams and rivers.  

Given the extended nature of the forecast, the exact placement and  

magnitude of flooding impacts remains uncertain, but confidence in the  

occurrence of flash, urban, small stream, and river flooding impacts within  

the highlighted region is increasing.



//Bliss



Previous Discussion as follows



...Increasing potential of flash and small stream flooding mid to late next  

week across the Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley...



.Ozarks into the Lower Ohio Valley...

 From the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley, there is an increasing potential  

for localized flash and small stream flooding impacts to develop by the  

middle of next week. Additional rainfall is still expected later next week,  

which may lead to an increased potential for flooding impacts, especially  

across the Ozarks through southern IN/IL. These weather patterns are  

typical for this time of year across this part of the country and  

antecedent conditions arent particularly vulnerable, which should mitigate  

new flooding impacts early next week. The NWM MRF continues to show an  

increased response across the entire region, however flood potential  

depends upon where initial rainfall develops and on the location of  

subsequent rainfall. Additionally, potential snowfall early next week  

across the lower Ohio Valley followed by rainfall could amplify the  

flooding threat within the Ohio Valley. MMEFS is suggesting action and  

minor flood level river rises by next weekend, with an increase in the  

number of rivers forecast to experience these rises in comparison to  

yesterday.



//Jackson



Additional National Water Center products are available at  

www.weather.gov/owp/operations













$$