863 

FNUS22 KWNS 291929

FWDDY2



Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Valid 301200Z - 011200Z



...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN

ARIZONA...NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN

UTAH...



...20z Update...

An Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area was introduced across

central-northern NM into south-central CO on Day 2/Tuesday. A

shortwave trough will pass over the Four Corners region while

sufficient gulf moisture is transported into the southern Plains.

Some of this moisture is expected to advect farther west into the

Rio Grande Valley and the NM/CO higher terrain, where sufficient

lift and daytime instability may support the development of

thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE, a dry

sub-cloud layer, fast storm motions, and PWATs of 0.5-0.7" favoring

less precipitation efficiency. Lightning ignitions are possible

where dry fuels exist, and gusty/erratic outflow winds could further

exacerbate any new/ongoing fires. The rest of the forecast remains

on track, see the previous discussion for more information.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/



...Synopsis...

Amid persistent longwave troughing centered over the Intermountain

West, an embedded shortwave trough will pivot northeastward across

portions of the Great Basin and Colorado River Valley on Tuesday.

With several preceding days of dry/breezy conditions across the

region, this will continue to support expansive fire weather

concerns across portions of the Great Basin/Southwest.



...Four Corners region into eastern Utah/western Colorado...

As the aforementioned shortwave rounds the base of the longer

wavelength trough positioned across the West, a mid-level jet streak

is forecast to overspread the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau. Latest

high-res and ensemble guidance suggests that this will support a

corridor of enhanced (sustained 20-25 mph with occasional gusts of

30-35 mph) south-southwesterly winds from northeastern

Arizona/northwestern New Mexico into eastern Utah and western

Colorado amid minimum RH values of 5-10%. With several days of

dry/breezy conditions across the region, ERCs span from the 80th to

98th percentile (locally greater). This combination of dry/receptive

fuels and wind/RH conditions is expected to support critical fire

weather conditions across portions of the Four Corners region and

Colorado Plateau. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns

is forecast across adjacent regions of the Great Basin, Southwest,

and the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristos.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$