746 

FNUS21 KWNS 291658

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Valid 291700Z - 301200Z



...Afternoon Update...

Only slight adjustments were made to the Elevated fire weather risk

area to include more of the southeastern CO Plains. Localized

critical fire weather conditions are expected along the

central-southern CO/northern NM Mountain chain into the adjacent

foothills. Strong southwesterly flow aloft is currently traversing

the southern Rockies while lee surface troughing tightens east of

the higher terrain, promoting gusty gap-flow and downslope winds

through the afternoon. Current surface observations depict

widespread RH values below 20% and some areas gusting over 40 mph (a

few observed 50+ mph gusts in south-central CO), with these

conditions already impacting the Aspen Acres wildfire. The smaller

spatial extent of expected fire weather conditions limits the

introduction of broader Critical highlights; however, very gusty

winds and low RH will further exacerbate the fire environment,

increasing concerns for rapid spread/fire growth on existing

wildfires and new ignitions. In addition, some mid-level moisture

may advect slightly more northward into Rio Grande Valley and

central-northern NM higher terrain later tonight. A lightning

ignition cannot be ruled out with any storms that may develop

(especially where drier fuels exist), though anticipated coverage

limits the introduction of dry thunderstorm highlights. 



In southeast WY and the NE Panhandle, sparse fuels preclude the

expansion of Elevated highlights. However, dry and breezy conditions

may support localized fire concerns where pockets of drier fuels

exist.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/



...Synopsis...

Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the

Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will

transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting

mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating

southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will

help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin

and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering

enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive

fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and

Southwest today.



...Southwest/Four Corners region...

The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger

across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will

support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20

mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and

several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel

dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or

greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire

weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah,

western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern

Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional

wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. 



The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will

extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New

Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th

percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger

later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote

marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind

gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this

area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and

broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A

targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should

guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH

conditions across a more widespread area within this region.



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$