442 

FNUS21 KWNS 290656

FWDDY1



Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0156 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Valid 291200Z - 301200Z



...Synopsis...

Longwave upper troughing will remain positioned across the

Intermountain West today. While the strongest mid-level flow will

transition northeastward in tandem a northeastward-ejecting

mid-level shortwave, a second mid-level shortwave rotating

southeastward across California and the western Great Basin will

help maintain enhanced mid-level flow across much of the Great Basin

and Southwest. Combined with a persistent dry air mass and lingering

enhanced mid-level flow, this will continue to support expansive

fire weather concerns across portions of the Great Basin and

Southwest today.



...Southwest/Four Corners region...

The aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow continuing to linger

across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region will

support a corridor of sustained southwesterly surface winds of 15-20

mph this afternoon. With RH values forecast in the 10-15% range and

several days of antecedent dry/windy conditions exacerbating fuel

dryness/receptiveness (ERCs in the 80th to 95th percentiles or

greater), this will promote elevated to locally critical fire

weather concerns across much of Arizona, southeastern Utah,

western/central Colorado, western/central New Mexico, and southern

Wyoming. Deep boundary layer mixing will also support occasional

wind gusts to 30-35 mph across much of this region. 



The best chance for locally critical conditions to emerge will

extend from central Colorado southward into north-central New

Mexico, where ERCs are noted to range from the 90th to 99th

percentiles. Modestly stronger mid-level flow is forecast to linger

later into the afternoon across this region, which should promote

marginally stronger sustained surface winds and occasional wind

gusts of 30-40 mph. An upgrade to Critical was considered for this

area, but uncertainty remains regarding a longer duration and

broader overlap of 20+ mph sustained winds and RH less than 15%. A

targeted upgrade could be needed in the D1 update should

guidance/observations indicate the development of critical wind/RH

conditions across a more widespread area within this region.



..Chalmers.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$