478 

FNUS28 KWNS 292139

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0437 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Valid 011200Z - 071200Z



...Synopsis...

Persistent troughing, enhanced flow aloft, and an established dry

airmass will maintain fire weather threats across the Great Basin

and Southwest through the work-week. Meanwhile, a strong ridge of

high pressure will continue to build across the central-eastern

CONUS through the forecast period, promoting widespread above normal

temperatures with mostly dry conditions. Beyond Day 5/Friday,

extended guidance hints at the potential for a pattern change. The

upper-level trough is forecast to lift into the northern Plains,

while ensembles depict ridging may build across northern Mexico and

into the Southwest this weekend. This could potentially allow some

monsoonal moisture to advect northward; however, varying model

trends lend to lower predictability in the overall pattern

evolution.



...Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday...

Enhanced southwesterly flow associated with persistent upper-level

troughing will sustain fire weather concerns across the Southwest,

Great Basin, and CO Rockies. As such, 40% probabilities were

introduced on Day 3/Wednesday while probabilities were maintained on

Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday. Isolated dry thunderstorm potential on Day

2/Tuesday could result in lightning holdovers across north-central

NM and south-central CO, which may emerge as a result of consecutive

days of hot, dry, and breezy conditions.



..Elizalde-Garcia.. 06/29/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$