574 

FNUS28 KWNS 282151

FWDD38



Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0349 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Valid 021200Z - 081200Z



...Synopsis...

Quasi-zonal mid to upper-level flow will remain present across much

of the CONUS early next week, with an embedded short-wave trough

entering the Great Basin. Increasing mid-level

westerly-to-southwesterly flow is expected to accompany this feature

across the Southern Rockies D3/Monday into D4/Tuesday. A deepening

lee surface low is also anticipated to slide southward from eastern

CO into the High Plains of TX during these periods. As the

short-wave trough progresses eastward and fills over the Central

Plains D5/Wednesday, most extended model guidance suggests a

long-wave trough will then develop over the western half of the

CONUS.



...Southwest D3/Monday...

Breezy west-southwesterly surface winds, along with warm and dry

conditions, appear likely from southern CA into portions of NM by

afternoon. While critical probabilities were evaluated for this

region, they do not appear necessary at this time given less

receptive fuels to the west (AZ) and slower wind speeds impacting

locations to the east (NM).



...Eastern/Southeastern NM, the Guadalupe Mountains, and the Upper

Trans-Pecos D4/Tuesday...

A southwesterly mid-level jet, deeply mixed boundary layer, and

increasing surface pressure gradient will likely lead to a broader

area of breezy conditions at the surface D4/Tuesday. Unseasonably

warm conditions will persist across this area, and with near zero

probabilities of rainfall expected, fuels will only become more

receptive over time. Although extended forecast models differ with

regards to the southward progression of a cold front across the

Central Plains, and the surface low position, confidence has

increased enough to warrant 40% critical probabilities across much

of eastern and southeastern NM ahead of the front.



...Eastern NM D6/Thursday...

Model solutions begin to diverge somewhat late in the week as the

next short-wave trough moves onshore near central/northern CA. The

position, depth, and progression of it vary through D6/Thursday,

though increasing mid-level flow across the Southern Rockies and a

subsequent lee surface low appear likely. As solutions begin to

converge in later forecasts, low critical probabilities for at least

eastern NM may be needed.



..Barnes.. 02/28/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



$$