427 

AWUS01 KWNH 291837

FFGMPD

NDZ000-300000-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

236 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...central ND



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 291833Z - 300000Z



SUMMARY...At least an isolated flash flood threat will materialize

across central ND this afternoon with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2

inches. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.



DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations showed a quasi-stationary

front oriented south to north across west-central ND, marking the

edge of higher instability to the east. SPC mesoanalysis data

showed 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE east of the boundary and visible

satellite imagery showed expanding Cu/TCu with the early stages of

convective initiation across Morton, Oliver and McLean counties.

Moisture was also increasing across central ND, to the north of a

surface low in northern SD, within low level easterly flow and

surface dewpoints in the 70-75 degree range, resulting in

estimated precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches.



Larger scale ascent ahead of a closed upper low over eastern MT

and associated shortwave trough extending into WY will continue to

advance eastward with continued (and possibly rapid) expansion of

thunderstorm coverage over the next 1-2 hours. Individual cells

will advance toward the north to northeast at anywhere between

20-40 kt but multiple rounds and cell alignment with the gradient

in MLCAPE will allow for areas of repeating and short term

training. Hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher

possible) are expected to develop into the afternoon with isolated

storm totals of 2 to 4 inches through 00Z. At least isolated flash

flooding will be possible given relatively low FFG values of 2

inches or less in 3 hours.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...



LAT...LON   49110106 49109793 47689848 46389953 46170055 

            46470126 47260160 48260164