901 

AWUS01 KWNH 291833

FFGMPD

MIZ000-292130-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0548

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

232 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Areas affected...Tip of the MItt, Michigan



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 291828Z - 292130Z



SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of extreme rainfall from repeating

thunderstorms is expected to continue across the Tip of the Mitt

in Michigan (northern tip of the lower Peninsula) through the rest

of the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2-4" with totals of 3-6" will

continue through the next couple hours and produce considerable

flash flooding.



DISCUSSION...As of 18Z an ongoing wave of activity over northern

Michigan has focused into a single corridor that is slightly

elevated over the Tip of the Mitt. Rainfall estimates of 2-4"/hr

are from KAPX with totals reaching 5.5" west of Pellston. This

activity will continue to shift east while propagating upstream on

the northern end of surface based instability. MUCAPE is around

2000 J/kg on the west side of the Tip and will continue shifting

east from the I-75 corridor and across the US 23 Highway on the

lakeshore. This activity did trend north since the late morning,

but may still sag south before shifting over Lake Huron.



These extreme rainfall rates will cause deep ponding on roads and

considerable rapid runoff concerns.



Jackson



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...APX...



ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...



LAT...LON   45868511 45838451 45708397 45468343 44998325 

            45108389 45198493 45278524 45558530