374 

AWUS01 KWNH 282003

FFGMPD

MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-290200-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

402 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026



Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and Central/Eastern North

Carolina



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible



Valid 282000Z - 290200Z



SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with locally high rainfall rates

should lead to a few instances of flash flooding in the southern

Mid-Atlantic through this evening, particularly for urban areas.



DISCUSSION...As of 20Z there is a weak surface low over eastern VA

with lee side troughing extending down through the NC Piedmont.

This is ahead of a mid-level trough axis pushing east over the

southern Appalachians. This is a warm/moist sector with abundant

moisture (PW of 2 to 2.2") and strong surface based instability

(SBCAPE 2000 J/kg in eastern VA and 3000 J/kg in south-central

NC). Also, there is an MCV associated with the morning flood

activity in KY/TN currently tracking south of Charlotte, NC and

outflow/sea breeze in eastern NC from ongoing activity.



Forcing from the mid-level trough axis will continue to promote

peak diurnal convective development that organizes somewhat in

20-30kt bulk shear and 20kt mean layer westerly flow. While most

convection will be somewhat progressive, there is a risk for

repeating activity/cell mergers. Hourly rates should continue to

peak in the 1-2"/hr range. FFG is generally 2-3"/hr, so the main

threat areas should be for urban areas including Richmond, Hampton

Roads, the NC Triangle. Localized flash flooding should be

expected through this evening. Activity may last through the

evening and require a followup discussion.



Jackson



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...



ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...



LAT...LON   38067728 38037654 37937544 37437518 35817545 

            35067609 34517670 34167822 34147944 34748093 

            36397971 37047876 37667812