408 

FXUS65 KVEF 310526

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

926 PM PST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Increasing rain chances are expected New Years Eve and New Years

  Day across the region with very high snow levels. 



* Active pattern will continue through the first week of January

  with periods of unsettled conditions expected. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...through Monday.



Considerable cirrus overcast dominates much of the region this

afternoon in advance of our next weather system. Satellite imagery

illustrates a deep fetch of subtropical moisture extending from

the US-MX Border southward into the subtropics. This moisture will

advance northward tonight and into NYE as low pressure offshore

approaches the West Coast. Low levels remain dry this afternoon,

with surface dewpoints largely in the teens and 20s, and with

limited surface winds advecting moisture, all the moistening will

have to come from the top downward. This lends to a rather

overcast Wednesday with considerable virga but it will take some

time to see precipitation reaching the ground, and best chances of

this wont be until the late afternoon and evening hours. As this

initial moisture surge lifts north, light stratiform rain will

spread through the deserts and into the four corners states by

early Thursday morning. Precipitation totals with this first batch

will be quite light, owing to a very slow moistening of the low

levels and limited dynamic forcing to enhance precip rates. An

additional round of light rain is expected New Years Day as the

primary shortwave lifts into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, snow

levels will remain quite high, generally 9000-11000 feet (which is

quite impressive during what should be the coldest time of the

year), so winter weather impacts are expected to be quite limited. 



Drier conditions will resume on Friday but troughing offshore will

keep some precipitation chances going across the Sierra and Great

Basin into the weekend. Additional shortwaves are suggested by

longer range guidance beyond the weekend, suggesting active

weather will continue with periodic precip chances and gusty

winds. 



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Clouds

will continue increasing across the area through the forecast 

period. CIGs will drop to under 10kft by daybreak, the to between 7-

9kft through mid afternoon. An area of rain is move through the 

valley Wednesday evening, with a period of virga expected after 21Z 

then light rain possible starting around 00Z. CIGs to 5000ft will be 

possible with this band of rain. The precipitation should shift 

north of the valley after 06Z then it should be dry through 12Z. 

Uncertainty exists in what clouds and visibility will do after the 

rain ends for Wednesday night- kept CIGs around 5000ft and 

unrestricted visibility but low status or fog is possible especially 

if more than light rain occurs. Smoke due to fireworks around 08Z 

may result in reduced visibility or an artificial cloud deck as well 

as mountain obscuration- and with light winds it may take a while 

for smoke to clear the valley. Looking ahead, additional rain is 

expected Thursday afternoon and evening with CIGs to at least 5-7kft 

and visibility reductions with moderate rain possible. Winds will 

remain light through the period.





For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 

California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain light, 

generally following diurnal directional patterns through the period 

except at KIFP where gusty north winds will slowly diminish 

Wednesday,Clouds will continue increasing across the region the next 

24 hours, with CIGs dropping to around 8-10kft areawide by morning. 

A round of showers is expected to pivot northward into the area by 

early afternoon and early overnight, first impacting southeastern 

California and northwestern Arizona, then progressing into southern 

Nevada beyond the end of the forecast period.



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Outler 

AVIATION...Nickerson



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