941 

FXUS65 KVEF 302041

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

1241 PM PST Tue Dec 30 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Increasing rain chances are expected New Years Eve and New Years

  Day across the region with very high snow levels. 



* Active pattern will continue through the first week of January

  with periods of unsettled conditions expected. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...through Monday.



Considerable cirrus overcast dominates much of the region this

afternoon in advance of our next weather system. Satellite imagery

illustrates a deep fetch of subtropical moisture extending from

the US-MX Border southward into the subtropics. This moisture will

advance northward tonight and into NYE as low pressure offshore

approaches the West Coast. Low levels remain dry this afternoon,

with surface dewpoints largely in the teens and 20s, and with

limited surface winds advecting moisture, all the moistening will

have to come from the top downward. This lends to a rather

overcast Wednesday with considerable virga but it will take some

time to see precipitation reaching the ground, and best chances of

this wont be until the late afternoon and evening hours. As this

initial moisture surge lifts north, light stratiform rain will

spread through the deserts and into the four corners states by

early Thursday morning. Precipitation totals with this first batch

will be quite light, owing to a very slow moistening of the low

levels and limited dynamic forcing to enhance precip rates. An

additional round of light rain is expected New Years Day as the

primary shortwave lifts into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, snow

levels will remain quite high, generally 9000-11000 feet (which is

quite impressive during what should be the coldest time of the

year), so winter weather impacts are expected to be quite limited. 



Drier conditions will resume on Friday but troughing offshore will

keep some precipitation chances going across the Sierra and Great

Basin into the weekend. Additional shortwaves are suggested by

longer range guidance beyond the weekend, suggesting active

weather will continue with periodic precip chances and gusty

winds. 



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds

turn to the northeast this morning, then to the southwest in the 

evening, remaining south to southwesterly through Wednesday 

morning. Speeds remain under 10 knots. Mid and high level clouds 

stream across the area through tonight. BKN CIGs falling below 10kft 

AGL are likely after daybreak Wednesday and will continue to descend 

though the day. Light winds are expected Wednesday but some light 

virga showers are possible with pockets of erratic surface winds. 



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 

California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds of less than 10 

knots following usual daily directional patterns are expected at 

most locations through the TAF period. The exception is the Colorado 

River Valley, where gusty northerly winds persist through the day, 

eventually weakening overnight. Mid and high level cloud cover will 

increase through today and tonight, with a more substancial 

reduction of CIGs falling to between 6-10kft AGL after daybreak 

Wednesday. Some light virga showers are also possible with pockets 

of erratic surface winds. 



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Outler

AVIATION...Meltzer/Outler



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