100 FXUS65 KVEF 301044 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 244 AM PST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy north winds will continue in the Colorado River Valley today, although less strong than the previous two days. * Dry conditions will continue through tonight, then rain chances will spread across the region from southwest to northeast Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...through Monday. Midnight satellite loop showed a cirrus shield spreading over the region from the south - the first sign of the incoming storm system. Surface obs showed locally breezy winds in the Colorado River Valley and temperatures within a few degrees of 24 hours ago. The breezy north winds in the Colorado River Valley will persist for one more day, although less strong than yesterday and Sunday. No need for another Wind Advisory since the strongest winds will be isolated to the Laughlin/Bullhead City/Davis Dam area. Water vapor loop showed low pressure centered near 23N 126W pulling moisture north. Precipitable water of one inch was already just offshore of San Diego. This moisture plume will move north up the CA coast before moving east Wednesday as the flow veers in response to the low center approaching. This will lead to rain chances reaching the western edge of our CWA around midday and spreading east to cover much of the CWA by midnight. The moisture plume is of subtropical origin, so it is very warm, and for that reason snow levels will zoom up to between 9000 and 11,000 feet as rain chances begin. As the calendar changes to 2026, the heaviest rain is likely to be falling in the Spring Mountains, with much lighter rain elsewhere. Cross sections show an important difference versus yesterday - a shallow layer of low level dry air. Yesterday, the cross sections showed upper level and lower level moisture in temporal sync, allowing a process similar to seeder feeder to enhance precipitation, but today, the upper level moisture is exiting as the low level moisture arrives, which negates this process, and I think this accounts for the presence of the shallow dry layer since the top-down moistening isn't happening as efficiently. All that to say that rain rates at party time will likely be very light in the lower elevations, and there is an outside chance of rain holding off until after midnight. The best chances for rain will probably come Thursday afternoon, ending Thursday night as the low center passes by and shortwave ridging takes over. This ridging will be very dirty, so we won't see blue skies to go along with the break in the rain. The next low will approach the Pacific Northwest coast Friday night into Saturday, potentially bringing heavy snow to the Sierra of far northern Inyo County as snow levels drop to near 8000 feet. However, if the low tracks just a bit farther north, the heavy snow could miss our CWA entirely. Either way, the southern Great Basin should be rain shadowed, with only light precip likely there Saturday and Sunday. Although there is a lot of difference in timing of individual waves, there is agreement that the active pattern will continue into next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds turn to the northeast this morning, then to the southwest in the evening, remaining south to southwesterly through Wednesday morning. Speeds remain under 10 knots. Mid and high level clouds stream across the area through the forecast period. FEW clouds around 7kft begin to enter the area by Wednesday morning after sunrise. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds of less than 10 knots following usual daily directional patterns are expected at most locations through the TAF period. The exception is the Colorado River Valley, where gusty northerly winds persist through the day, eventually weakening overnight. Mid and high level cloud cover will increase through the forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Morgan AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter