271 FXUS63 KUNR 281658 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 958 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler weekend temperatures, then warming up next week - Limited, low impact precipitation potential overnight/Saturday morning in the far north, and then Monday for south of half of the CWA && .DISCUSSION...(Tonight Through Friday) Issued at 923 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026 04z surface analysis had cold front bisecting the CWA from central MT through central NE. It has stalled this evening as it becomes parallel to the upper flow per latest water vapour loop, which had one shortwave passing to our northeast and another emerging out of AB. These waves will wiggle the cold front over the CWA. Tonight, shortwave to our northeast races southeast, taking weak QG/frontogenesis forcing with it. Combined with limited low level moisture, expect QPF/light snow amounts to be minimal near the ND/SD border. Overnight/Saturday, AB shortwave drops southeast into the Great Lakes. Ahead of it, cold front will bend back a bit northeast as southeasterly flow develops along associated weak low coming out of MT. Behind the low, the cold front will clear the CWA with gusty northwest winds (30-50% chance 40mph gusts). Temperatures will be tricky Saturday with tight isotherms across the area (20s behind the cold front, some 40s/some 50s ahead of it). Sunday through next week, split flow persists with limited return flow ahead of modest shortwave troughs that will pass Monday and then Thursday/Friday. The late week system might have a little more oomph, but moisture will be limited with not much cool air to work with. So, low impact precipitation potential will continue along with mild temperatures overall. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday) Issued At 957 AM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 MVFR CIGS over central SD will move east of the area by 20z. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty NW winds will continue this afternoon across NE WY and far western SD. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson AVIATION...13