749 FXUS65 KTWC 292124 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 224 PM MST Mon Jun 29 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy southwest winds continue today and tomorrow which will result in areas of critical fire weather conditions. A dry forecast is in place for this week. High temperatures right around around normal to start the week then warming up to several degrees above normal for the July 4th holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The upper level pattern over the CONUS remains split with a upper level trof over the west and a strong upper high over the eastern states. The trof in the west will keep breezy to locally windy conditions in play this afternoon resulting in elevated fire weather conditions with localized near critical conditions just to the west of the Tucson Metro stretching from Avra Valley to Arivaca. Otherwise, highs today will top out near normal. Tomorrow, we will cool down by a degree or so areawide with near to slightly below normal temperatures to close out June. The trof in the west will weaken mid-week with the sub-tropical high building south of us and expanding across the area into the 4th of July holiday weekend. High temperatures for the start of July are currently forecast to be right around normal before warming sharply to several degrees above normal late this weekend into early next week. Moisture, mainly mid-level, starts to creep back into the area late in the week which may lead to afternoon cloud build-ups Friday into the holiday weekend. Potential for a favorable monsoon flow pattern that would support the return of deeper moisture looks to set up sometime next week, likely after the 7th, with the 8-14 day precipitation outlook (July 6-12) showing a slight lean for above normal (33%-37% chance). && .AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z. SKC thru much of valid pd. The exception is few clouds AOA 12k ft AGL east of KTUS thru 30/04z. SFC winds W-SW 12-22 kts with ocnl gusts up to 30 kts, gradually diminishing after 30/03Z. Tomorrow, winds pick up again after 30/17Z with similar speeds and gusts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy conditions will continue across the area this afternoon, tomorrow, and Wednesday with elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the area. Expect 20-foot winds from the southwest 12-22 mph and gusts up to 30 mph each afternoon. Dry conditions through much of the upcoming week with minimum relative humidity levels in the 10-20 percent range with the more elevated RHs along the international border. Winds will be lower the middle of next week. Moisture may begin to creep back into the south late in the week however current forecast minimum relative humidities stay mainly below 15 percent for now. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson