921 FXUS65 KTWC 290912 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 212 AM MST Mon Jun 29 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy southwest winds continue today and tomorrow which will result in areas of critical fire weather conditions. A dry forecast is in place for this week. High temperatures right around around normal to start the week then warming up to several degrees above normal for the July 4th holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The CONUS remains split with upper level trof across the west and strong upper level high over the east. The trof in the west will keep breezy conditions today and tomorrow resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. Highs today and tomorrow will be at or slightly below normal as we close out June. The trof in the west will weaken mid-weak with sub-tropical high building south of us and expanding across the area into the 4th of July holiday weekend. Highs start of July right around normal then warm up to several degrees above normal this weekend. Moisture, mainly mid-level, starts to creep back into the area late in the week which may lead to afternoon cloud build-ups Friday into the holiday weekend. Potential for a favorable monsoon flow pattern to set up sometime next week, likely after the 7th, with the 8-14 day precipitation outlook (July 6-12) showing a slight lean for above normal (33%-37% chance). && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/12Z. SKC thru much of valid pd. The exception is few clouds AOA 12k ft AGL east of KTUS btwn 29/20z and 30/04z. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 29/16z, then W-SW 12-22 kts with ocnl gusts up to 30 kts, slowly diminishing after 30/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy conditions will continue across the area today and tomorrow with elevated fire weather conditions for portions of the area. Expect 20-foot winds from the southwest 12-22 mph and gusts up to 30 mph both afternoons. Dry conditions through much of the upcoming week with minimum relative humidity levels in the 10-20 percent range with the more elevated RHs along the international border. Winds will be lower the middle of next week. Moisture may begin to creep back into the south late in the week however current forecast minimum relative humidities stay mainly below 15 percent for now. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson