756 FXUS65 KTWC 281955 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 1255 PM MST Sun Jun 28 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy to windy southwest winds continue today which will result in areas of critical fire weather conditions. A dry forecast is in place for this week along with high temperatures around normal. && .DISCUSSION... A broad upper level trough across the western states has limited moisture in the Desert Southwest and supporting breezy to windy conditions across southeast Arizona along with high temperatures near normal. The combination of the warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions today from Sells eastward where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM MST. Tomorrow, breeziness continues but will only support elevated fire weather conditions. The upper trough over the western CONUS will gradually weaken through the week allowing for the sub-tropical ridge to try to build to our south and expand across the area as we head into Independence Day weekend. We may see some moisture try and creep in around Thursday (at least in the mid-levels) which may lead to afternoon cloud build-ups on Friday and Saturday. But with the subtropical ridge resetting we are currently in a wait and see for how the pattern evolves heading into Independence Day weekend and beyond. && .AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z. A few clouds AOA 12k ft AGL thru valid pd, otrw SKC. SFC winds W-SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts, slowly diminishing after 29/03Z. Winds picking up again after 29/17Z with speeds of 13-22 kts with occasional gusts to around 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions through much of the upcoming week with minimum relative humidity levels in the 10-20 percent range with the more elevated RHs along the international border. Expect 20-foot winds from the southwest 15-25 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph through this evening. Outside of the Red Flag that is in effect until this evening, elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday as well, especially from Tucson west. Winds will be lower the middle of next week. Moisture may begin to creep back into the south late next week however current forecast minimum relative humidities stay mainly below 15 percent for now. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ150>154. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson