310 FXUS64 KTSA 292325 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 625 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Hot, humid and dry weather persists this week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect today and Tuesday for portions of the area, and may be needed in the days following. - Flooding continues on main-stem rivers in northeast Oklahoma. - Low chances for afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the latter part of the week. Low storm chances continue with a weak front by Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A look at GOES19 PWATs shows a drying trend over the region during the past 24 hours, especially to our south and west upstream from the low level flow. The model blend (NBM) and a blend of short- term models have been handling dewpoints fairly well. Evapotranspiration is likely still having some impact on the dewpoints across NE OK, but this impact should be lessening in the coming days. Will leave the current advisory for this afternoon intact. The lows last night were warm, even in the typical sheltered sites. Winds are not expected to be quite as strong overnight into Tuesday morning, but still enough to hold temps up. At this point, the forecast will continue to lean on the warm NBM numbers. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 The trends in the deep-layer moisture and lessening impact from soil moisture mentioned above support the gradual draw down of dewpoints in the coming days that the models are advertising. With forecast highs not changing much over the next couple of days, the potential for advisory level heat over much of the forecast area is decreasing. After crunching the numbers for Tuesday, advisory level heat indices were forecast only in Franklin county AR in the lower Ark River Valley. Since an advisory is in effect from a neighboring office to our east, an advisory will be issued there for Tuesday afternoon. Both the MOS and NBM show high temps trending upward during the latter part of the week. Heat headlines are likely to return if this pans out as advertised. Our area will remain under the influence of a strong and broad ridge of high pressure aloft over the next few days. The ridge will weaken by the end of the week, and deep layer moisture may increase enough from the southeast to yield low afternoon storm chances in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday and Friday. A weak front may make its way into the region by Sunday, yielding some rain/storm chances that will linger into Monday. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for all sites. Breezy south winds will decrease overnight, but remain near or above 10 kts much of the night. South-southwest 30-45kt LLWS develops across E OK and NW AR sites between 03-14z. Sfc winds increase again Tuesday morning with gusts near 20 kts during the afternoon, especially across E OK. Otherwise, FEW to SCT high clouds will continue to pass over the region through Tuesday, with a period of FEW to SCT clouds near 2500-4000 ft possible again during the morning-early afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 77 96 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 79 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 78 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 76 92 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 75 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 77 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 77 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 F10 77 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 77 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-060>062- 067-070-074-176-254-272-354. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ220. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...43