996 FXUS64 KTSA 282340 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 - Hot, humid and dry weather persists this week. Heat advisory headlines are in effect Monday for portions of the area, and may be needed in the days following. - Low chances for diurnally driven storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR during the latter part of the week. Low storm chances over much of the area next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Dewpoints are running a few degrees lower compared to yesterday at this time. Looking at GOES19 PWATs over the past 24 hours, the plume of 2+" PWATs that was over us yesterday has moved clear over toward the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic. The impact to the heat index forecast is yet to be seen. Another warm and breezy night is in store. The winds stayed up even at the typical sheltered locations, and that looks largely the case tonight. Will stay with the toasty model blend (NBM) numbers for overnight lows. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 It is largely a temp and dewpoint forecast this coming week. Summer has finally arrived after a long storm season. Broad ridging both aloft and at the surface over the eastern CONUS will keep the forecast dry through midweek. For the heat index forecast, the plan is to lean toward the clustering of models closer to the 75th %ile of the spread, still with the thought that dewpoints may run a touch higher due to recent wet weather. Highs on Monday are expected to be largely the same as today, maybe a touch higher. The resulting heat index forecast for Monday argues for another heat advisory for largely the same area as today. The current forecast for Tuesday has heat indices below advisory levels most areas, so the day to day approach to the headlines is good. Deep layer moisture will increase from the south and east toward the end of the week, with model data indicating some potential for mainly afternoon storms in the terrain of SE OK and NW AR Thursday and Friday. By next weekend, ensemble data suggests weaker ridging across the southern CONUS as the H5 height center shows hints of relocating back over the southern Rockies. The QPF fields have a popcorn afternoon storm feel to them, areawide. The temperature forecast has an upward slope to it during the latter half of the week. The NBM has temps getting close to triple digits in some spots by next Saturday. The MOS is not quite that hot yet, so we will just have to wait and see. Nevertheless, chances for more heat headlines are pretty good. Lacy && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Few to broken high clouds are again anticipated across the CWA through the TAF period. Also, like early this morning, scattered to broken MVFR ceilings are forecast for southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Monday morning. These ceilings should lift and scatter out early afternoon. The gusty southerly winds weaken this evening, though remaining breezy overnight before increasing again Monday. KFSM remains the exception with a more easterly/variable wind overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 93 80 94 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 77 95 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 79 94 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 79 93 78 93 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 77 90 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 76 91 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 78 93 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 78 92 77 93 / 0 0 0 0 F10 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 77 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062-064-066- 067-070-074-154-176-254-272-354. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055>058- 060>062-067-070-074-176-254-272-354. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...20