016 FXUS64 KTSA 282331 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 531 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Grassland fire weather concerns this afternoon w/near record high temps. - Shower and thunderstorms ongoing with continued isolated to scattered coverage through Saturday night. - Higher rain chances Sunday especially north. Cold front across the area with wide range in temperatures. - An unsettled weather pattern over the next week with multiple periods of showers and thunderstorms. There is the potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall hazards. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Corridor of high based showers and and isolated storms ongoing across E OK will continue eastward through the afternoon with rainfall amounts remaining light but isolated lighting hazard risk for outdoor activities. Cold front moves through NE OK into far NW AR late overnight with a continued axis of elevated convection possible from SE OK through NW AR though overall coverage is likely to remain low. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 The cold front evolution Sunday through Monday will have a large impact on local conditions with expanding cloud cover and rain chances along and north of the front with continued unseasonably warm temperatures south of the boundary. An expanding area of convection appears likely by mid morning Sunday north of the front across S KS with and ESE motion keeping higher rain chances across far NE OK into NW AR from afternoon through evening. This scenario will reinforce the frontal zone and further sharpen the temperature gradient across the region. The frontal zone will attempt to lift northward Sunday night into Monday and likely become more aligned SW to NE with widely varying temps expected again across the forecast area. Precip chances will gradually wane as weak ridging aloft develops downstream of the evolving southwestern CONUS troughing. Unseasonably warm temperatures return area wide Tuesday as the warm sector spreads northward. Shortwave trough is currently timed to eject across the central CONUS Tuesday night into Wednesday with an increase in shower and storm chances with the associated frontal passage. The degree of moisture return will be the focus for any uptick in severe weather potential as wind fields will be strong with the wave passage. The unsettled pattern continues into late week with more pronounced troughing across the western CONUS and multiple periods of showers and storms likely across the Plains late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions should prevail thorugh the period, except during on-station impacts from showers and thunderstorms. MLC is the most likely site to see a thunderstorm overnight given recent CAM output and an overnight PROB30 group will be maintained at that site. Additional development most likely during the afternoon tomorrow will have the highest chance of affecting the other sites, with a lesser chance at MLC prior to tomorrow evening. As such, PROB30 groups will be included for the other sites tomorrow afternoon. Winds will shift from a southerly direction to a northerly direction behind the cold frontal passage tonight at the NE OK sites, with gustiness expected. A wind shift will also occur at the far NW AR sites but less gustiness is expected there. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 48 64 44 65 / 20 50 60 40 FSM 53 71 44 72 / 20 40 50 30 MLC 56 76 55 77 / 30 40 40 20 BVO 39 56 36 60 / 10 50 70 30 FYV 46 67 44 66 / 20 60 70 40 BYV 46 58 41 64 / 20 60 70 40 MKO 52 69 47 69 / 20 50 50 30 MIO 43 56 41 63 / 20 70 80 40 F10 53 72 50 70 / 20 40 50 30 HHW 56 78 54 77 / 20 20 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...22