794 FXUS64 KTSA 310448 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1048 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Above average temperatures likely over the next several days, especially early next week. - Low rain chances develop Thursday night into Friday morning, but any rain totals are expected to remain light. Overall, dry conditions are likely to persist into next week. - Fire weather potential increases by early next week with breezy afternoon winds, very warm temperatures, and low relative humidity values. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 The area will remain on the northern periphery of high pressure today, featuring light westerly winds. With the help of downslope flow, high temps should be noticeably warmer than Tuesday (generally mid-upper 50s/ lower 60s south). Dry conditions persist with mostly clear skies likely under moisture-starved NW flow aloft. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 A seasonably pleasant New Years Eve is forecast for the area with temperatures falling into the upper 30s/ lower 40s around midnight and overnight lows bottoming out near or below freezing. By late overnight into Thursday morning, a weak frontal boundary pushes into the area, providing slightly cooler conditions for New Years Day across northern portions of the FA. For areas south of the front, afternoon temperatures should still climb into the upper 50s or lower 60s. Sfc low pressure develops late in the day Thursday over the OK/TX panhandles as an upper level wave originating off the coast of Baja California navigates over the southern Rockies. As this system moves east over the CWA Thursday night, moisture will be advected into the region. At this time, it still appears that highest moisture content and precipitation will remain east of the CWA. However, ensemble guidance does suggest potential for a greater rainfall footprint over the CWA Thursday night/ Friday morning than currently advertised. PoPs were increased slightly to introduce slight chance mention for much of NW AR and far E OK to better represent this potential. Deterministic and ensemble data suggest most locations which receive rainfall will total less than a tenth of an inch, though an axis of slightly heavier totals cannot be ruled out somewhere in the eastern FA. Following this system, western CONUS ridging translates eastward, becoming increasingly focused over the plains going into next week. This will promote yet another period of well-above average temperatures and continuation of dry conditions through Tuesday. Will need to monitor the fire weather potential during this period as afternoon winds may become breezy at times. There is some indication by longer-range guidance for another pattern change going into mid month, which may provide better precipitation opportunities. We will just have to wait and see. Until then, dry and warm remains the rule. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 30 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 28 58 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 30 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 26 58 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 27 56 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 29 53 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 29 58 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 26 53 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 F10 30 60 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 30 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...43 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...05