104 FXUS64 KTSA 301720 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1030 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 - Warming trend begins today and continues through the remainder of the week. Temps rise back above average for this time of year by Wednesday and climb well above average by early next week. - Due to the ongoing drought conditions and dry air in place over the region, there will be some fire weather threat when winds increase and temps climb. - Precipitation chances look bleak over the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1030 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Morning surface analysis places the center of high pressure over eastern TX with a weak ridge extending north into eastern OK and western AR. By afternoon, a SW wind will develop on the north and west side of the surface high as it continues to drop south toward the Gulf Coast. Wind gusts between 15 and 20 mph are possible across NE OK, with fire weather concerns increasing some as the winds, low humidity and receptive fuels due to ongoing drought come together. A weak surface ridge is expected to persist over the region tonight under clear or mostly clear skies. Will lean the low temp forecast toward the colder CONSMOS and 25th %ile of the guidance spread again tonight. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Issued at 1030 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 As mentioned yesterday, a positive PNA pattern prevails over the CONUS downstream from a split-flow block off the West Coast. This block is in the process of breaking down today, and the upper low off the SoCal/Baja Coast will transition to an open wave. Models forecast this wave to traverse across the southern part of the country later this week, while gradually phasing with the flow downstream. As this wave emerges into the southern Plains Thursday night into Friday, an area of surface low pressure will develop near and then track along the Red River down toward the ArkLaTex and mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday. The latest ensemble and deterministic data has shifted the more favorable area for precip potential to our east compared to yesterday, and will thus keep the non-mentionable PoPs from the model blend (NBM) in place today. The upper pattern de-amplifies over the CONUS in the wake of this wave, with ridging predominant over the Plains this coming weekend into the start of next week. Temps will climb to well above average for this time of year through Monday, with a weak front potentially shaving a few degrees off by next Tuesday. The current positive PNA pattern then followed by lower amplitude ridging over the Plains will be unfavorable for precipitation over the next 7 days. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Generally light southerly winds today will become mostly light and variable tonight. A weak boundary will keep winds mostly calm to light out of the west tomorrow morning for all sites. Skies will remain mostly clear with just some passing high clouds tonight. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 50 30 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 47 29 58 33 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 50 30 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 50 24 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 45 26 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 44 29 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 47 27 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 44 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 F10 50 29 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 47 30 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...04