185 

FXUS63 KTOP 010445

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Very high fire danger will persist through this afternoon across

  east central Kansas. Avoid activities that could spark a fire. 



- A mix of snow, freezing rain and rain is expected Sunday afternoon

  and into Monday morning. Minor accumulations of snow and ice are

  expected, but could still create some slick sports. 



- An active weather pattern continues next week with several chances

  for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures look to be above

  normal.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



Northwest flow persisted over the central plains per the 19Z water 

vapor imagery. A low amplitude ridge was noted over the southwest 

with a cutoff low off the coast of Northern CA. Surface obs had an 

area of low pressure over east central KS. North of this was a cold 

high pressure system poised to advect south once the surface low 

moves east. 



The main focus of the forecast is on the wintry mix expected Sunday 

and Sunday night. Models are coming into line with similar temp 

profiles. As a subtle shortwave passes overhead, warm air and 

moisture are expected to begin lifting over the shallow cold air. 

This should produce initially some light snow Sunday afternoon that 

gradually changes to rain and freezing rain in the evening depending 

on surface temps. Most areas are likely to get between an tenth and 

a half inch of precip through Sunday night with minor snow and ice 

accumulations. The main thing working against a more impactful 

winter event is the warm air advection itself. Forecast soundings 

show weak if any low level cold air advection within the boundary 

layer. So as the warm air advection persists into the evening this 

may allow temps to hover right around freezing. Additionally precip 

falling from the warm nose into the shallow cold air could moderate 

surface temps and limit ice accumulation. All together the most 

likely forecast has around a half inch of snow and less than a tenth 

of an inch of ice, mainly on elevated surfaces as seven day averages 

of ground temps from the K-State mesonet remain around 40 degrees. 

So the expected impacts are for minor accumulations of snow and ice 

with untreated surfaces becoming slippery. Any risk to major 

infrastructure appears to be pretty low. After collaborating with 

neighboring offices, we decided it was a good idea to put out a 

winter weather advisory for the minor ice accumulations. Initially 

it looked like the better forcing for precip ended around 06Z. But 

forecast soundings and isentropic surfaces suggests some continued 

lift within the stratus deck and continued drizzle or freezing 

drizzle based on surface temps. Because of this, the advisory is 

posted until mid-morning Monday when temps should begin to warm and 

to give a heads up for the morning commute. 



The clouds and drizzle/rain could stick around through the day 

Monday holding temps down. Because of this I went a little cooler 

for highs than what the NBM had. For some reason the NBM has some 

very aggressive POPs for Monday night while the operational models 

show little if any forcing for vertical motion. However the deep 

stratus deck with isentropic upglide is progged to persist Monday 

night and could produce some measurable precip. Normally I wouldn't 

have such high POPs for mainly a drizzle forecast. But the high POPs 

are a result of most inputs to the NBM having measurable precip. So 

Have left the categorical POPs in the forecast.  



Guidance shows a shortwave moving out into the plains by Wednesday. 

Though there is some timing differences with this wave and 

confidence in timing precip is a little lower than it otherwise 

would be. Have kept likely POPs for Tuesday and Tuesday night with 

better chances spreading east Wednesday, but these are subject to 

change until models come into better agreement with the wave. Temps 

should be warm enough for all rain and there are even signs for 

enough elevated instability for thunderstorms too. 



There is a bit more uncertainty in the synoptic pattern for the end 

of the week and into the weekend with models showing different 

solutions to troughing across the western half of the country. It 

looks like there should be some kind of surface wave or frontal 

system move through Friday or Saturday. So the forecast continues 

with some POPs, the better chances on Friday. Temps look to remain 

mild and precip type doesn't look to be a concern at this time.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026



This period continues the transition from last period with VFR 

conditions to marginal VFR to most likely IFR conditions by

tomorrow evening. Still looking more like a cold rain profile

tomorrow afternoon with gradually deteriorating cig/vis

conditions. Winds look to remain mostly steady to slightly 

increasing through the period before relaxing into the evening

but directional change is minimal. Mentioning -FZDZ with the

cooler air taking over into the evening. Sounding profiles

appear to support FZDZ p-type more than anything as it looks

right now across the terminals as this first system exits east

of the area.  



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday 

for KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-

KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wolters

AVIATION...Drake