354 

FXUS65 KTFX 291130

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

530 AM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026



Aviation Section Updated.



.KEY MESSAGES...



 - Higher terrain snow will continue in Southwest Montana through

   this morning.



 - Consistent rainfall will continue today across Southwest,

   Central, and North-Central Montana, decreasing tonight before 

   dissipating early tomorrow morning. 



 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest

   of the week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...



 - Meteorological Overview:



A large upper level trough with multiple embedded upper level 

lows will continue to create impactful weather across the CWA 

today. Northerly to northeasterly winds through the lower to mid- 

levels will combine with forcing from the troughing across the 

region to result in continued widespread precipitation today. This

stratiform rain will persist through tonight into early tomorrow 

morning. Mountain snow will continue in Southwest Montana through 

late this morning. Precipitation amounts look greatest near 

Glacier NP, where northerly to northeasterly mid- level will be 

most orthogonal to terrain. Those with interests in and near 

Glacier NP should be aware of the risk for rockfall and creek and 

stream rises through tomorrow morning. 



The upper level trough moves out of the CWA tomorrow, ending the 

persistent stratiform rain. However, there will be daily chances 

for showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest of the week, as 

instability in the atmosphere persists. Despite this, shear 

remains low at this time, inhibiting the development of severe 

thunderstorms. Temperatures will have a warming trend, peaking 

early next week with highs in the mid to high 80s with the 

building of an upper level ridge. - AM and Dzomba





&&



.AVIATION... 

29/12Z TAF Period 



Widespread rain and high mountain snow will affect much of the CWA

through the period. Expect the precipitation to slowly begin to

diminish after 06z Tue over Southwest MT and the eastern portions

of the CWA. Mountains/passes will be obscured across the CWA 

through the period. Brusda



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

Periods of rain will continue to affect the CWA today. The

heaviest precipitation should fall over the western portions of

the CWA. The flood watch will continue for the Northern Rocky

Mountain Front.



Overall, no flooding reports have been received so far for this

event, but some minor issues can not be ruled out in areas that

are starting to approach 3 inches of rainfall. Brusda



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  58  50  74  51 / 100  90  20  20 

CTB  60  49  71  48 /  90  90  20  10 

HLN  58  49  72  52 / 100  80  50  60 

BZN  54  44  71  46 / 100  70  30  50 

WYS  47  32  63  33 / 100  50  10   0 

DLN  55  40  68  45 / 100  30  50  60 

HVR  63  50  76  51 /  80  70  40  10 

LWT  54  45  70  46 / 100  80  40  20 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch through this evening for East Glacier Park Region.



Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for Elkhorn and 

Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and 

Centennial Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead 

Mountains.



Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for Northwest 

Beaverhead County.



&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls