907 FXUS65 KTFX 290538 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1138 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Higher terrain snow will continue in Southwest Montana through this morning. - Consistent rainfall will continue today across Southwest, Central, and North-Central Montana, decreasing tonight before dissipating early tomorrow morning. - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: A large upper level trough with multiple embedded upper level lows will continue to create impactful weather across the CWA today. Northerly to northeasterly winds through the lower to mid- levels will combine with forcing from the troughing across the region to result in continued widespread precipitation today. This stratiform rain will persist through tonight into early tomorrow morning. Mountain snow will continue in Southwest Montana through late this morning. Precipitation amounts look greatest near Glacier NP, where northerly to northeasterly mid- level will be most orthogonal to terrain. Those with interests in and near Glacier NP should be aware of the risk for rockfall and creek and stream rises through tomorrow morning. The upper level trough moves out of the CWA tomorrow, ending the persistent stratiform rain. However, there will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the rest of the week, as instability in the atmosphere persists. Despite this, shear remains low at this time, inhibiting the development of severe thunderstorms. Temperatures will have a warming trend, peaking early next week with highs in the mid to high 80s with the building of an upper level ridge. - AM and Dzomba && .AVIATION... 29/00Z TAF Period Wet and breezy conditions are found across North Central Montana terminals (KGTF, KLWT, KHVR, KCTB) this evening as a band of heavier wind and rain pivot through the area from the north. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail through much of the overnight across the plains as precipitation moves through and ceilings lower. SW MT terminals (KBZN, KWYS, KEKS, KHLN) will generally remain MVFR this evening, but some IFR conditions due to lower ceilings will arrive overnight tonight. Precipitation remains fairly persistent across SW MT after 12z, but becomes more showery across the plains allowing for some opportunities for VFR conditions. Ludwig && .HYDROLOGY... Periods of rain will continue to affect the CWA from today through Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are still expected by Monday. In the Glacier Park region, rainfall is expected to be a bit heavier, possibly up to 4 inches. Additionally, with some high elevation snow still left, the combination of rainfall/snowmelt could lead to some flooding on the east side of Glacier National Park. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this region starting on Sunday. Should later forecast today decrease the projected rainfall amounts, the flood watch might be cancelled. Additional flood statement might be needed if rainfall amounts start to exceed 3 inches elsewhere across the CWA. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 58 44 58 48 / 90 100 90 90 CTB 62 47 59 48 / 100 100 90 90 HLN 54 44 56 47 / 100 100 100 80 BZN 51 39 54 42 / 100 90 90 60 WYS 48 28 47 32 / 90 80 100 70 DLN 49 36 55 39 / 100 100 90 40 HVR 66 45 65 48 / 100 90 70 70 LWT 56 41 55 44 / 100 50 80 80 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Eastern Toole and Liberty. Flood Watch through Monday evening for East Glacier Park Region. High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Hill County-Western and Central Chouteau County. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Monday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls