562 FXUS65 KTFX 282000 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow in the terrain continues across Southwest Montana and vicinity through Monday morning. - Gusty winds over the plains through the early overnight, peaking early evening. - Moderate to briefly heavy rain develops through the remainder of the day in many areas, particularly for areas along and west of I-15 on the plains. - Impactful weather diminishes Monday evening and Monday night, though the risk for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will persist through much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Broad upper level troughing with a couple embedded upper level lows will continue to result in impactful weather across the Northern Rockies over the next 36 hours or so. One of the initial and ongoing concerns is for mountain snow, mainly at and above pass level, across Southwest Montana and vicinity. This portion of the region is closest to the colder of the two upper level lows, which is allowing for snow levels to drop quite a bit south of I-90. Webcam imagery in Southwest Montana at Big Hole Pass indicates snow levels continue to be near or below 6,500ft. After another push of snow tonight, snow begins to taper through Monday morning. The second, and warmer of the two upper level lows is pivoting back westward from far SW SK toward the region this afternoon. This portion is nearly stacked with surface and mid level low pressure that is slowly nudging southward toward the International Border near Hill county and vicinity. Given these being nearly stacked, the surface low pressure that is approaching has nearly peaked in intensity and looks to do so early this evening. Strong winds near the surface pivoting around the west, south and southeast portions of this surface low look to be mixed to the surface this afternoon and evening across portions of the plains. A High Wind Warning is in effect for areas where confidence is greatest in impacts being realized. These winds subside late evening and early overnight as the surface low quickly fills. All the while, northerly to northeasterly winds through the lower to mid-levels will combine with forcing from the troughing across the region to result in another stretch of widespread precipitation through Monday. Precipitation through the afternoon today pivots southward from SW AB into the region and becomes more widespread through the evening and overnight. Given this is the warmer portion of this system, snow levels further north are quite high. Thus concerns for any mountain snow look to be primarily south of the US- 12 corridor. Precipitation amounts look greatest near Glacier NP, where northerly to northeasterly mid-level will be most orthogonal to terrain. Those with interests in and near Glacier NP should be aware of the risk for rockfall and creek and stream rises through Monday. Precipitation rates in this area look to peak this evening into the early overnight. Although this system departs heading into Tuesday, upper level troughing remains across much of the west through the week. Temperatures trend warmer, but afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be around most days this week. At this point there does not look to be much shear around, which keeps confidence low in any organized severe thunderstorms through this week. -AM && .AVIATION... 28/18Z TAF Period Precipitation continues to circulate across the region through the TAF period around low pressure centered near the AB/MT border. MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration remain widespread with with local IFR conditions in heavier showers. An area of steady/widespread precipitation pivots around the low across north-central MT later this afternoon into the overnight period, bringing a further reduction in ceilings and visibility and greater likelihood for IFR. Gusty west to northwest surface winds develop across most of north-central MT this afternoon and continue through this evening with gusts peaking in excess of 40kts at many N-central MT terminals early this evening. Hoenisch && .HYDROLOGY... Periods of rain will continue to affect the CWA from today through Monday. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are still expected by Monday. In the Glacier Park region, rainfall is expected to be a bit heavier, possibly up to 4 inches. Additionally, with some high elevation snow still left, the combination of rainfall/snowmelt could lead to some flooding on the east side of Glacier National Park. Thus a flood watch has been issued for this region starting on Sunday. Should later forecast today decrease the projected rainfall amounts, the flood watch might be cancelled. Additional flood statement might be needed if rainfall amounts start to exceed 3 inches elsewhere across the CWA. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 44 58 48 72 / 100 90 90 40 CTB 47 59 48 68 / 100 90 90 50 HLN 44 56 47 71 / 100 100 80 60 BZN 39 54 42 69 / 90 90 60 30 WYS 28 47 32 62 / 80 100 70 20 DLN 36 55 39 67 / 100 90 40 30 HVR 45 65 48 73 / 90 70 70 70 LWT 41 55 44 68 / 50 80 80 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Eastern Toole and Liberty. Flood Watch through Monday evening for East Glacier Park Region. High Wind Warning until 3 AM MDT Monday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Hill County-Western and Central Chouteau County. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Monday for Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Monday for Northwest Beaverhead County. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls