437 FXUS65 KTFX 282141 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 241 PM MST Sat Feb 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be cold today across the plains of North-central Montana before it warms up Sunday through early next week. - Snow will return to the mountains of Southwestern Montana Wednesday into Thursday. - It will be warm across Central and Southwestern Montana through the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon across North-central Montana it will be cold with all locations well-below seasonal averages for high temperatures. On Sunday the upper-level ridge remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana which will allow temperatures across the plains of North-central Montana to begin to warm up on Sunday. It will also be dry across the area. Sunday evening an upper-level shortwave trough moves through Southwestern Montana. This will bring light snow to the Idaho/Montana border Sunday evening through Monday evening. On Monday and Tuesday the upper-level ridge remains over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep warm and mostly dry weather across the area. On Wednesday and Thursday an upper-level trough begins to move over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring precipitation to much of Southwestern Montana. See the Forecast Confidence & Scenarios Section for details about this trough. On Friday the upper-level flow will be weak and zonal (east-west) over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will keep status quo weather for the area on Friday. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Temperatures were decreased significantly from NBM through tomorrow morning across North-central Montana to better match current observations and trends. Sunday night through monday evening there is a 30 - 60% chance for 1 inch of snow or greater along the Idaho/Montana Border in Southwestern Montana. Wednesday through Thursday deterministic models and ensembles are in good agreement that there will be an upper-level trough over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. However, there are large differences in the speed and amplitude of the trough. Two of the 4 clusters which counts for approximately 50% of the ensemble membership has a splitting trough. This would send most of the energy south into the Great Basin and bring only light precipitation to Southwestern Montana. The other two ensembles do not have a splitting trough which would support more widespread precipitation across the area. This leads to uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation amounts across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Wednesday through Thursday. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 30 - 60% chance for 6 inches of snowfall or greater across the mountains of Southwestern Montana. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 30 - 60% chance for 4 inches of snow or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front. Wednesday through Thursday there is a 20 - 50% chance for liquid precipitation of a tenth of an inch or greater across the valleys of Southwestern Montana. -IG && .AVIATION... 28/18Z TAF Period IFR/MVFR CIGS will persist through 20-22z this afternoon over the plains of Central and North Central Montana (i.e. KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, and KLWT terminals), with improving conditions to low- VFR/VFR thereafter. A few flurries can't be ruled out through this timeframe as well, mainly at the KLWT terminal. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected across the remainder of Central and Southwest Montana throughout the 2818/0118 TAF period. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 12 55 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 8 52 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 27 55 30 54 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 27 57 31 55 / 0 0 10 20 WYS 17 43 26 44 / 0 30 60 70 DLN 30 55 34 53 / 0 0 10 20 HVR 8 47 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 16 52 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls