420 FXUS65 KTFX 310655 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1155 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - It will be warmer and dry through the New Year's Day - Mostly light mountain snow returns Thursday evening, with daily chances of light mountain snow through the beginning of next week. - Windy condtions return to the Rocky Mountain Front this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Winds along the Rocky Mountain Front will be peaking over he next hour. After that, the pressure gradient decreasing along the Rocky Mountain Front overnight will decrease winds. Though, winds will still remain relatively breezy through the work week. An upper-level ridge will keeps things dry through the day Thursday with above average temperatures for most of the region. A backdoor cold front swinging through the Hi-line Wednesday and Thursday will keep temperatures closer to average up there. Thursday evening and Friday, the upper level ridge begins to break down as a trough builds along the West coast. A shortwave will bring light mountain snow to Southwest MT Thursday evening through Friday, slowly lifting north throughout the timeframe. With the troughing being the dominant pattern through the beginning of next week, a few waves of light mountain snow and low end chances for precipitation at lower elevations. The ridge breakdown will also bring in better upper-level flow and bring back windy conditions to the Rocky Mountain front with breezy winds across the rest of the region. Above normal temperatures will continue into the beginning of next week as well. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Although this is a lower confident scenario (<20% chance), forecast soundings indicate the slight possibility of there being enough low level moisture for patchy freezing drizzle overnight Thursday into Friday morning along the Hi-line/backdoor cold front. However, models aren't that confident in precipitation developing that far north yet, and there is a good chance it remains a low cloud deck instead. There seems to be good model agreement that the snow will be light in the mountains through the weekend. There's a 10-30% chance for 2" of snow each day Friday through Monday. The best chances for any precipitation to move off of the mountains will be into the Southwest MT Valleys. Even then, there is only a less than 40% chance for 0.05" of precipitation through Monday. For winds this weekend, ensembles don't seem the most excited about the winds. There is a 20-50% chance for 58 mph winds along the immediate eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountain Front Saturday and Sunday, with a 20-50% chance for 35 mph winds elsewhere. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 31/06Z TAF Period Broken mid- to upper level cloudiness will persist in lee of the Continental Divide across Central and North Central Montana through much of the next 24 hours as a Chinook Arch remains nearly stationary. Mountain wave turbulence is expected near this feature, especially west of the US Hwy 89 corridor. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected across all terminals, with gusty west winds at the KCTB terminal. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 35 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 45 28 45 22 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 39 22 42 24 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 38 16 43 22 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 27 6 38 11 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 41 20 45 25 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 47 19 34 16 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 50 30 50 30 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls