937 FXUS62 KTBW 290700 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Maximum heat indices will climb to around 108 degrees across the Nature Coast this afternoon, otherwise daily maximum heat index values of 100 to 107 degrees are expected through the week. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 For today, ridging at the surface and aloft will remain across the region with a rather light flow in place. Plenty of moisture also remains across the area and this combined with the sea breeze and daytime heating will lead to scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Strong upper level ridging will become established over the eastern U.S. during midweek with some weak energy drifting west around the base of the ridge. This will help push a weakening cool front into north Florida Tuesday which then washes out over the region on Wednesday with a more easterly flow setting up across the peninsula. Deep moisture, precipitable water >2 inches, south of the boundary will overspread the area Tuesday with numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing. Convection will remain rather slow moving and we could see some locally heavy rainfall amounts. On Wednesday and Thursday, the deepest moisture will stretch from the I-4 corridor southward so expect more numerous to widespread convection in these areas, with scattered storms further north. Late in the week into the weekend the upper level ridging will begin to breakdown with the surface ridge shifting east allowing a more south to southwest flow to setup across the region. Abundant moisture will hold over the area so expect more scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening convection each day, but cannot rule out a morning shower or thunderstorm near the coast. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with daytime highs from the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s inland and overnight lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop with daytime heating during the late morning hours. More MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible in scattered convection this afternoon and evening, then VFR conditions should prevail later this evening into Tuesday morning. Light winds will become west to northwest 5 to 10 knots by midday near the coast then spread inland during the afternoon before becoming light and variable again during the evening. The exception will be near showers and thunderstorms where winds could be gusty and erratic. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Pleasant boating conditions are expected for most of the week with winds generally around 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less. However, there will be a period of winds around 15 knots over the northern coastal waters during Wednesday night. The only other marine hazard will be some scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms, which may produce gusty winds and locally rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Abundant moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical levels with sustained 20 foot winds less than 15 mph. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through the week which could cause gusty and erratic winds, otherwise there are no other significant fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 82 93 79 / 40 10 70 40 FMY 96 78 95 78 / 20 20 60 40 GIF 96 77 94 76 / 60 30 70 30 SRQ 94 80 95 78 / 30 10 60 50 BKV 97 76 95 73 / 30 10 70 30 SPG 95 82 94 80 / 30 10 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close