918 FXUS62 KTBW 290124 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 924 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue this week. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 924 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Convection has ended across the area with less coverage this afternoon than yesterday. Clouds will dissipate overnight with the winds already light and variable in most locations. Current forecast is on track and have no updates planned. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Ridging continues over the area at the surface and aloft over the area this afternoon supporting another round of sea breeze convection through this evening. Showers and storms again likely to focus over areas from SWFL through W FL along sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions, with highest chances likely from around the I-4 corridor southward later this afternoon as the WC/ECFL sea breeze converge. This morning's TBW sounding continued to indicate near-average PWATs and relatively light winds throughout the column, and along with regional ACARS soundings indicate an increased easterly component in the SFC-3km layer winds. Therefore, while storm motions will continue to be rather slow today, the overall axis of highest PoPs may shift slightly westward over SW/WCFL compared to yesterday. Stronger convection will continue to pose an isolated hail or damaging wind gust threat but overall severe threat remains limited. Highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal and lower/mid 90s inland. Pattern aloft over the U.S. continues to amplify, with strong high pressure becoming established over the E U.S. centered north of the local area and persisting through the week. The surface ridge shifts south across the area as a frontal boundary sinks south across the E U.S. and stalls over the Srn E Seaboard/N Gulf coast into mid week. Boundary layer flow gradually shifts to W/NW on Monday then gradually veers to E/NE through Wednesday, with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms locally. Highest rain chances shift from northern/central areas on Mon-Tue to central and southern areas from Wednesday onward as light and generally easterly deep layer flow becomes established over the area. Afternoon highs continue to range from the upper 80s to mid 90s, with max heat indices in the lower/mid 100s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 924 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Convection has ended across the area with winds light and variable and skies clearing. Winds should increase from the west between 16-18Z tomorrow as the sea breeze kicks in and scattered storms will be possible generally 18-24Z. MVFR to IFR conditions possible in the storms otherwise VFR through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 924 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026 No major changes for the update as forecast on track. No headlines expected through the period with winds generally 10kts or less. Rain chances will increase Tuesday through Thursday as a boundary settles across the state causing localized higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 94 81 93 / 10 40 20 70 FMY 77 96 78 96 / 10 20 20 60 GIF 76 96 77 95 / 10 50 30 80 SRQ 78 94 79 95 / 10 30 10 60 BKV 75 97 76 95 / 10 30 30 80 SPG 81 94 81 94 / 10 30 20 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis