361 FXUS62 KTBW 010538 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1238 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures through the remainder of the weekend and the upcoming week...chance of daily showers, mainly over the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Rather stagnant pattern across the forecast area through the forecast period. A weak U/L trough currently over the state will exit east of the region early next week, with a strong subtropical ridge building over the southeast U.S. and Florida...which will hold over the area through the end of the period. W/V satellite imagery indicates that a weak U/L disturbance is moving across the Florida peninsula ATTM and will bring a chance of showers early this morning across southwest Florida, which is where the best available deep layer moisture exists. Otherwise, areas of low clouds and patchy fog will develop across the forecast area the remainder of the overnight hours and will lift a few hours after sunrise Sunday morning. The disturbance will push east of the region today with some drier air aloft advecting over the region. As the U/L subtropical ridge builds over the forecast area early next week, strong surface high pressure over the northeast U.S. will build down the coast and over the Florida peninsula. This will create rather gusty northeast to east flow off the Atlantic and across the Florida peninsula. Even as the center of high pressure exits across the western and central Atlantic mid week, it will continue to extend over the Florida peninsula. Convergent L/L flow off the Atlantic will generate scattered showers which will push onshore the east coast of Florida through much of the upcoming week. During the afternoon hours each day...as the atmosphere in the lower levels destabilizes, the shower activity may advect from the eastern peninsula to the interior peninsula, and potentially making it's way all the way over to the west coast. This will be diurnally driven by surface heating with shower activity ending shortly after sunset each day. Due to the strong subtropical ridge and large scale subsidence building over the forecast area, temperatures will run well above climatic normals through the period. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 80s...with some areas in the upper 80s by the end of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Areas of low ceilings and patchy fog will impact all terminals of west central and southwest Florida through the early morning hours with areas of IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs developing, with LCL LIFR CIGs. A few showers may also develop across southwest Florida and briefly impact FMY/RSW/PGD, although similar ceilings/vsbys will persist. Clouds will lift at PIE/TPA/SRQ/LAL a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions and SCT035-045 expected. Mostly cloudy skies will likely prevail today at PGD/FMY/RSW with VFR CIGs 035-045. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. The gradient will tighten a bit early next week, with an evening surge of easterly winds each day which could reach SCEC levels for a few hours. Otherwise, no headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. No fire weather hazards are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 61 82 63 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 83 63 84 64 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 79 59 82 62 / 10 0 20 10 SRQ 80 61 82 63 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 81 51 84 55 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 79 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby