989 FXUS62 KTBW 010022 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 722 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Diminishing storm chances across the southern interior through this evening, however a strong wind gust remains possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A few showers and an occasional storm remain across parts of Highlands and Polk counties over the interior this evening as a cold front slowly pushes south across S FL, and should gradually diminish through the remainder of the evening. N/NE flow in the wake of the front as high pressure builds over the SE U.S. is advecting a shallow layer of Atlantic moisture S/SW across the peninsula which will favor the development of widespread low cloudiness overnight into Sunday morning, before gradually lifting and burning off late Sunday morning through afternoon. A mild night is in store for most of the area, with central and southern areas from around I-4 southward in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and areas northward across the Nature Coast dropping into the upper 40s to mid 50s where slightly drier air has been able to infiltrate in the wake of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A cold front remains draped over central FLorida this afternoon and will continue to drift southward. Currently, a line of showers ahead of the front continues to move through central FL with a few showers/storms possible to develop this afternoon and evening along and south of the front as it moves out of the area. Storm prediction Center has placed the southeastern portion of the forecast area in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe storms with the main threat being strong, gusty winds and a slight chance of hail. Increased moisture associated with the front has also aided in the development of sea fog off the SWFL coast that will likely linger throughout the remainder of the day into the evening. Showers and storms continue to diminish into the evening as dry air moves in. Unfortunately, unlike the previous cold fronts, there will be no noticeable temperature drop following this front. In fact, temperatures will continue to warm throughout the week reaching close to 90 by mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 N/NE boundary layer flow in the wake of a southward drifting cold front across S FL is transporting Atlantic moisture S/SW across the peninsula this evening, and will eventually overspread the terminals overnight accompanied by MVFR/IFR cigs, with TEMPO LIFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys possible for SWFL terminals. Most severe restrictions likely between 09-14Z, followed by conditions gradually improving to VFR by late morning with winds increasing slightly while remaining N/NE. && .MARINE... Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Showers and storms still possible, especially over the southernmost waters in the forecast area, into the evening. Patchy fog continues to linger off the SWFL coast and nature coast this afternoon and could remain into the evening. Conditions begin to improve by tomorrow morning and remain quiet into next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1229 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Much needed rain continues this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. RH values remain elevated through the weekend into next week with winds staying less than 15 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 59 79 60 82 / 10 0 0 10 FMY 64 83 62 85 / 20 20 10 10 GIF 58 78 58 81 / 20 0 0 10 SRQ 61 80 59 82 / 10 0 0 10 BKV 51 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 63 79 64 81 / 10 0 0 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana