931 FXUS62 KTBW 310126 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 826 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much colder air is moving into the area. There is a high probability of freezing conditions across the Nature Coast while the entire area experiences very low wind chills tonight. - Hazardous boating and beach conditions continue through the evening. Inexperienced boaters should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions and beachgoers should exercise caution if going into the water as even the best swimmers can be swept away from shore. - Elevated fire weather concerns exist through tomorrow due to low relative humidity values. && .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 No adjustments necessary to the existing forecast as a cold dry air mass continues to advect into the area with sub-freezing temps and wind chills expected overnight. A band of mid to high clouds associated with a speed max aloft extending SW across the peninsula ahead of an approaching trough will continue clearing the peninsula from north to south this evening as the trough axis pushes across the state. The resulting clear skies and continued cold air advection will favor overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the Nature Coast, mid 30s for central and southern areas away from the immediate coast, and upper 30s to lower 40s for central and southern coastal areas. Winds remain in the 5-10 mph range for most areas overnight allowing wind chills to drop into the mid 20s across the Nature Coast, as low as the upper 20s to lower 30s for central and southern areas away from the immediate coast, and the mid 30s to around 40 for central and southern coastal areas. As such, a Freeze Warning remains in effect for Nature Coast counties from Levy southward through Pasco, and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all counties, effective from Midnight through 9 AM Wednesday morning. Hazardous marine and beach conditions continue this evening before gradually improving overnight, with the Small Craft Advisory and High Rip Current Risk likely to be allowed to expire early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect sunny but cool conditions for New Years Eve with afternoon highs only reaching from the upper 50s to around 60 degrees from around I-4 northward, while areas southward warm a few additional degrees, mostly into the lower 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A trough axis stretches across the E CONUS from SE Canada to the Gulf Coast region. In response to this trough, a cold front pushed south across Florida overnight and early this morning. The latest analysis suggests this front is now over Cuba and the Bahamas. Cold, arctic air is filtering in across the Florida peninsula in response, with a north wind advecting the cold air into the area. With this north wind, temperatures have remained fairly cool through the day, and thus will drop considerably tonight. The one limiting factor is the wind, which should help keep things mixed enough that outside the nature coast, freezing conditions are unlikely to be widespread for the two hours needed for a freeze warning. However, the wind also means that feels like temperatures will be in the 20s across much of the area. Prolonged periods of exposure to this kind of weather can lead to hypothermia. Be sure to dress appropriately. The ridge axis will slowly shift eastward as the upper-level trough pushes east and the whole pattern flattens. However, this will happen so slowly that a north wind will persist through Friday. This means that cool weather will last longer than usual. Once the winds begin to shift on Friday, warming will accelerate. However, another front arrives this weekend as a trough digs over the SE. This front will effectively pause the warmup over the weekend, rather than substantially cooling things down again. There will also be the potential for some storms to accompany this front's passage, and perhaps some fog ahead of the arrival. Overall, though, a much more winter-like week is ahead of us to kick off the new year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Dry VFR with N/NW winds 10 knots or less expected through the period. A departing band of mid to high clouds will clear by around 06Z or so with clear skies afterward. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Poor marine conditions continue through tonight before gradually improving overnight and into tomorrow. With high pressure settling across the region, continually improving boating conditions favor several nice, albeit cool, days on the water. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Critically low RH values will continue tomorrow, with elevated fire weather concerns in response. However, light winds preclude red flag conditions over the next several days, despite the low RHs. Moisture will gradually return towards the weekend before another front arrives this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 40 60 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 39 65 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 35 60 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 42 62 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 29 59 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 47 60 53 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce