089 FXUS62 KTBW 301219 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 719 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Much colder air is moving into the area. There is a high probability of freezing conditions across the Nature Coast while the entire area experiences very low wind chills tonight. - Hazardous boating and beach conditions continue through the day. Inexperienced boaters should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions and beachgoers should exercise caution if going into the water as even the best swimmers can be swept away from shore. - Elevated fire weather concerns exist today due to gusty winds and low relative humidity values. This can lead to erratic fire behavior, even though red flag conditions are not currently forecast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 719 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 The day is off to a much chillier and breezy start than it has been in awhile. Current observations across the region show temps in the low 40s to the mid 50s. A dry, stable airmass continues to advect into the region, allowing dewpoints to fall considerably. In summary, it feels like winter once again. The current forecast is on track. Assuming no dramatic shifts as 12Z guidance comes in, the freeze watch will need to be upgraded to a freeze warning later this morning. Also continuing to track RH values and winds for fire danger. While red flag conditions are not anticipated, there is still an elevated danger when compared to recent days and weeks. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 719 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Quiet VFR weather is expected for the next few days as high pressure remains in control. Other than some gusty northerly winds today, no significant aviation impacts are expected at this time through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 A dry cold front is currently pushing down the Florida peninsula. Strong Canadian high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida the remainder of the night and into Tuesday ushering in much colder temperatures on gusty northwest winds...with temperatures holding steady or only climbing slowly this afternoon with highs in the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. A large area of cold air strato-cu will likely develop over the eastern Gulf today due to the strong CAA over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf. The clouds may briefly advect onshore, with the best chance in the Pinellas county area. Gusty northwest winds over the eastern Gulf will create a high risk of rip currents at area beaches today. Tuesday night, winds will subside a bit...and combined with mostly clear skies and strong radiational cooling, temperatures will likely drop below freezing across the nature coast with lows in the upper 20s. A freeze watch is in effect Tuesday night for Levy, Citrus, Sumter, and Hernando counties. Given ideal drainage flow set-up over the interior, freezing temperatures may extend further south across Polk, Hardee, DeSoto and Highlands county for less than 2 hours at isolated colder locations, just touching 32 degrees. Criteria for a freeze warning is temperatures less than or equal to 32 for 2 or more hours across a widespread area...so not anticipating a freeze warning that far south Tuesday night...best chance across the nature coast where the freeze watch is currently in effect. The area of Canadian high pressure will hold over the region on Wednesday with high temperatures from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s south under mostly sunny skies. Another cold night Wednesday night as strong radiational cooling will again develop under mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 30s north, mid to upper 30s central, and lower 40s south. Warmer near the coast. Patchy frost will likely develop across the nature coast late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning...and may extend further south over the interior. The area of high pressure will remain over the area into the latter part of the week with the airmass gradually modifying a bit each day. High temperatures will climb into the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south on Thursday...and around 70 north to the mid 70s south on Friday. Still a cool night Thursday night with lows generally in the lower to mid 40s away from the coast. The risk for late night and early morning fog will also increase Thursday and Friday nights with the best chance across the nature coast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Strong Canadian high pressure will build over the waters today with gusty northwest advisory level winds and seas until around sunset today. Winds/seas will gradually subside Tuesday night through Wednesday night...with relatively benign conditions expected on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 Much drier colder air will advect across the region today. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop below 35 percent across much of west central and southwest Florida today away from the coast with winds around 15 MPH with higher gusts. The significant fire potential index today is low...so a red flag warning will not be required. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will again drop below 35 percent across most of the forecast area on Wednesday, however winds will be less than 15 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 60 40 61 47 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 66 39 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 62 35 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 62 41 62 48 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 60 29 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 60 45 61 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto- Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES...Flannery PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Oglesby