872 FXUS62 KTAE 291933 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 333 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Dangerous heat is expected through Tuesday, increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned places if possible. - Afternoon thunderstorms are possible this evening and especially Tuesday. Some may produce strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors. - There is a high risk of rip currents this afternoon along Walton and Bay County beaches. Heed local beach flags and advice from lifeguards. - Dangerous heat may return for the holiday weekend again increasing the potential for heat stress and illnesses. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM ... (This Evening through next Sunday) Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Currently, satellite derived PWATs are sitting around 1.6 inches as a very strong upper level ridge is settling in over most of the eastern conus, continuing our trend of increasing temperatures over the forecast area. While actual high temps are running around 3-6 degrees above normal, which are still short of our record highs. Max apparent temps are hitting near 105 on the low end, and in the current heat advisory along with a few other pockets toping out near 110. There will be only a slight reprieve overnight as lows are only expected to drop into the upper 70s. The chance of afternoon showers cooling us little has diminished somewhat. High res guidance like the HRRR have all but given up on the latest runs, while the FV3 still has a boundary or MCS pushing through late evening into tonight. Some higher PWATs upstream could support this, and SPC does now have a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today east of I- 75. Conditions are favorable if we get that push to initiate convection. That said, chances for tomorrow remain elevated. A shortwave impulse being pulled around the southern portion of the upper level high, centered to our north, will provide the additional forcing needed to really kick things off. Model soundings have ample CAPE and DCAPE, making severe storms and the related strong winds a potential concern. With the steering flow out of the NE storms may become stalled or slow moving along the seabreeze causing some additional localized flooding concerns. The timing and areal coverage of these storm will play a big part in tomorrows temperature concerns. Expanded coverage will limit high temps significantly, while if tomorrows coverage under performs we could see max apparent temps bump even higher with slightly higher PWATs in place. A heat advisory will likely be in place again tomorrow, with convective coverage being the limiting factor on the extent. If you are planning to be outdoors, stay hydrated, wear light-weight and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned places. Remember to check the backseat of your vehicles for children and pets. Thereafter, an influx of dryer air will relax things a bit for the last half the work week. Then, as the ridging breaks down we will see a return to more seasonal afternoon thunderstorm activity over the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Isolated TSRA will develop late this afternoon near TLH and VLD with some TSRA developing to the NE after 00z. These storms may drift SW toward ABY, VLD, and TLH through 04-06z. PROB30s continue for these sites. ECP and DHN should avoid the TSRA today. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Gentle westerly to northwesterly flow continues through Tuesday. The sea breeze will turn winds more southwesterly each afternoon. By the middle of the week, winds turn more easterly as a trough of low pressure slips south of the marine area, then turning more southerly and southwesterly late in the week. Seas will be around 1-2 feet through the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible again beginning tonight, mainly during the nighttime and morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Transport winds today will primarily be out of the northwest around 5-10 mph, though becoming more westerly near the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze moves in. Isolated showers and storms are possible mid to late afternoon along and south of I-10 today, followed by scattered showers and storms moving in from the northeast this evening across south Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Transport winds become northerly then easterly Tuesday into Wednesday. Numerous showers and storms are expected Tuesday afternoon across the area with much lower rain chances Wednesday. Gusty, erratic winds and frequent lightning are possible in and near storms. Outside of storms, dispersions will be good Monday and Tuesday, then high on Wednesday && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 While scattered thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday could pose a locally heavy rain threat, widespread flood concerns are not expected over the next 7 days. Nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage areas is possible if storms move slowly. Action stages continue on the lower Choctawhatchee the Ochlockonee near Havana. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 78 95 75 94 / 20 80 30 20 Panama City 79 94 77 92 / 0 80 30 10 Dothan 77 95 75 93 / 10 60 20 0 Albany 78 95 75 93 / 20 40 10 0 Valdosta 77 96 73 94 / 10 50 10 10 Cross City 78 96 73 95 / 20 90 10 30 Apalachicola 80 93 79 90 / 10 70 30 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Humphreys LONG TERM....Humphreys AVIATION...Young MARINE...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Humphreys